Gary Armida's Blog
For a baseball fan, this is one of the best days of the year. It’s a day that only takes three words to summarize: pitchers and catchers. As teams begin to filter on to the fields of Florida and Arizona, there is a feeling of hope. Every organization, even the ones we all “know” will fail have dreams of becoming that surprise team. They will all point to the Orioles and A’s of 2012 and say how every expert predicted them be have a sub .500 record and fight for last place. And, if history shows anything, it shows that one or two of those teams will be right; they will surprise.
Every organization enters camp with many questions. Some have position battles, depth problems, age problems, or even expectation problems. Their spring answers to those questions most often impact their season results. For American League Questions, read here.
National League
Washington Nationals
Question: Can they overcome the scrutiny of being the favorite?
The Nationals deservedly enter the spring as the favorites to represent the National League in the World Series. They have a deep lineup, a deep bench, a deep rotation, and a deep bullpen. They are, well, deep from player one through 25. Bryce Harper has a year of experience, Stephen Strasburg lost the training wheels, and they added Rafael Soriano to close, which removes the question of last season’s blown playoff win. But, the Nationals are no longer that young team that may compete like they were a year ago. They are the prohibitive favorites and will have to deal with that. With that label, they deal with the national spotlight, more media attention, and more scrutiny in each game. They already have to deal with Gio Gonzalez’s name mentioned in connection with the Miami clinic. But, they will have tougher days if they have a losing streak of significance. A young team doesn’t know what it’s like to play with high expectations until they do so. Davey Johnson has managed such a team before so his guidance is invaluable.
Atlanta Braves
Question: Is Kris Medlen an ace?
The Braves made some of the best moves of the winter, signing BJ Upton and then trading for his brother Justin. With the Upton brothers and a maturing Jason Heyward in the middle of the lineup, the Braves will score runs, even if Brian McCann misses more time than expected. But, the Braves lack the quintessential ace for a team that has World Series aspirations and talent. They are hoping that Kris Medlen is that guy. For the last two months of the season, there was no better pitcher in the game than the Braves’ right hander who went 9-0 in 11 starts and allowed just 8 earned runs in 78.2 innings. Obviously, those statistics can’t be duplicated, but Medlen surprised all of baseball last year after spending the first half in the bullpen in order to keep his innings down before returning to the rotation. The Braves thought highly of Medlen, but there wasn’t much through around baseball about him being a top of the rotation starter. He may just be that, but he has to actually do it. The Braves’ chances hinge upon him being a number one starter.
Philadelphia Phillies
Question: Can Roy Halladay rebound?
There are many questions about the Phillies, including the age of their offense, the production of Ryan Howard, and the underbelly of their bullpen. But, if the Phillies are to return to the playoffs, that possibility begins and ends with Roy Halladay. Halladay came to the Phillies in 2010 and would win 40 games with a 2.40 ERA in his first 65 starts. But, last spring there were concerns about his velocity, which he seemed to calm down on Opening Day. But, Halladay struggled for most of the season, spent some time on the disabled list and wound up being just a league average pitcher, posting a 4.49 ERA in 25 starts, spanning just 156.1 innings, his first sub-200 inning season since 2005. Entering his age 36 season, Halladay needs to rebound to an approximation of his former self to form one of the best trios in the game as the Phillies still boast Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee in their rotation. If Halladay can rebound, the Phillies can contend for a Wild Card.
New York Mets
Question: Can they find an outfield?
The Mets have what looks to be a very solid rotation with Johan Santana, Jon Niese, Shawn Marcum, Matt Harvey, and Dillon Gee. Actually, if all are healthy, their rotation rivals any in the sport. Their bullpen depth has been improved as well. But, the Mets are currently looking at fielding an outfield of Lucas Duda, Mike Baxter, and Kirk Niewenhuis. Andrew Brown and Collin Cowgill will also get a chance to crack that outfield as well. If they can find a mix that will even give just league average results, the Mets will be, at least, a .500 team assuming their key players stay healthy. Their infield offense of David Wright, Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, and Ruben Tejada will produce, but unless that outfield group outperforms their expectations/track records or they are able to sign a free agent, the offense will be in the bottom part of the league. It’s too bad because there is actually a decent team being submarined by that outfield.
Miami Marlins
Question: How many home runs will Giancarlo Stanton hit?
Seriously, there isn’t anything else to wonder about with the organization this year. After stripping down the payroll a year into their new business model, the Marlins look more like Rachel Phelps’ Indians without Lou Brown as the Manager and without the promise of Rick Vaughn and Willie Mays Hayes. A surprise for this club would be a run at .500, but even that doesn’t seem possible in 2013. Their fire sale may set up long term success, but 2013 will be terrible. The one reason to see them is their slugger Giancarlo Stanton. The 23 year old is entering his fourth season and already has 93 career home runs. His home run total, his on base percentage, and slugging percentage has improved every season, which is scary considering how dangerous he already is. 2013 should be his first 40 home run season, but that could be somewhat blocked with a rise in intentional walks. Stanton is the only threat in the Marlins’ weak lineup.
Cincinnati Reds
Question: Where does Aroldis fit?
The Reds were, for most of the 2012 season, the best team in the National League. They hit for power, pitched well, and fielding well. They had a dynamic offense, a solid rotation, and the most electrifying closer in the sport. This spring, they will try to see if their closer, Aroldis Chapman, can be just as dominant as a starting pitcher. Chapman was signed as a starting pitcher, but was moved to the Major Leagues quickly as a reliever. He has had control problems in the past, but last season, he walked a career low 2.9 batters per nine innings while striking out an incredible 15.3 batters per nine. Despite that type of dynamic success, the Reds will try to maximize Chapman for 200 innings rather than 70. If he can find success as a starting pitcher, the Reds will have a rotation the rivals any in the sport with Chapman joining Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos as legitimate top of the rotation starters. If he can’t find that dominant form, Chapman will return to the closer rule, which lengthens the bullpen. Either way, the Reds have to make the right call here as Chapman is an elite weapon. If they make a mistake and lose that weapon, they no longer have that advantage.
St. Louis Cardinals
Question: Are the kids good now?
The Cardinals have one of the best farm systems in Major League Baseball. They also have one of the best Major League rosters. But, the core of their roster is aged. Carlos Beltran is 36, Yadier Molina is 30, Matt Holliday is 33. Even David Freese is 30 years old. A veteran team will deal with injuries, even in the best of circumstances. That puts pressure on guys like Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, and Pete Kozma to fill in. On the pitching side, the Cardinals already lost Chris Carpenter and have health concerns about Jaime Garcia. The pressure falls on top prospects Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal to fill the rotation gaps. There is no questioning the talent, but the 2013 Cardinals’ playoff chances rest on how quickly the young players assimilate to the Major League level.
Milwaukee Brewers
Question: Who starts after Gallardo?
The Brewers’ lineup is suspect, but their rotation has even more holes after staff ace Yovani Gallardo. They are depending on Marco Estrada and Michael Fiers duplicating their career seasons at the ages of 29 and 28 respectively. Both lack even a Minor League track record of the type of performance they put together in 2012. Perhaps number one pitching prospect Wily Peralta can step into the rotation, but his track record is suspect as well. The Brewers had a nice run of success over the past few seasons, but 2013 appears to be the season that they cut the budget too far. The offense is thin and the rotation has far too many questions. Aside from the Cubs, the Brewers are the least talented in the division. Their lack of pitching answers have much to do with that.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Question: Can two years of lessons help the Pirates win in 2013?
There have been periods over the past two seasons when the Pirates have looked like a division contender. They are led by one of the best players in the sport in Andrew McCutchen and have gone into the trade deadline as a winning ballclub. But, they have collapsed in August and September each season, compiling a 36-76 record in the final two months over the past two seasons. But, they have a veteran rotation of AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Francisco Liriano, and Jeff Karstens. Their lineup has improved and is a bit more versatile. With top two pitching prospects Jameson Taillon and Gerritt Cole almost ready to help at the big league level, the Pirates head into the season with a .500 record as a must. With McCutchen entering his prime years, the addition of Russell Martin behind the plate, and a lineup that can play the matchup game, the Pirates are in their best position to end two decades worth of losing. But, this core won’t be tested until August.
Chicago Cubs
Question: How good is Anthony Rizzo?
The Cubs are going through a very smart, but slow rebuild process. In the meantime, they have made smart, low cost signings such as Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, and Scott Baker. Edwin Jackson was signed to a long term deal and they added role players like Scott Hairston and Nate Schierholtz. The Cubs will be infinitely better than last year’s team as they have solid depth. But, they won’t be contenders this season as the development process is one of patience, not immediacy. The direction of their offense depends largely on the development of their 23 year old first baseman, Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo came up last season and posted a .285/.342/.463 batting line with 15 doubles and 15 home runs in 87 games. With a Minor League track record of a power hitter with decent on base skills, Rizzo will be tested in his first full season as a Major Leaguer to maintain his approach throughout the season. He could be a a .280/.340/.515 hitter who tops 30 home runs in 2013. If he develops quickly and becomes a star, the Cubs can be a .500 team this season and be set up for many more years to come. But, if he doesn’t develop, the Cubs will be waiting for a while for another impact bat to come through their system.
San Francisco Giants
Question: Does Tim Lincecum show up?
The Giants won a World Series with Tim Linececum struggling to post even league average results. Considering the mediocrity of their offense and the lack of depth, the Giants can’t afford to tempt fate twice. Many things went right for the Giants last season. Barry Zito posted a solid season. Can he do that again? Also the bullpen was highly depended upon during the postseason. And, the Dodgers have improved immensely. If the Giants are to truly compete in 2013, TIm Lincecum must return to the form that won him two Cy Young Awards and pitched to a 2.83 ERA since coming into the league. With Ryan Vogelsong turning 35 years old, Zito still a question, the Giants need vintage Lincecum to get back to the postseason.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Question: Can the Dodgers spread around the money?
There will be stories and retorts saying that money doesn’t buy team chemistry. The Dodgers are now Baseball’s highest paid team. With that comes expectations. The offense is star driven, but the organization does lack depth should injuries occur. Any rotation led by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke has a chance to be spectacular, but Hyun-Ju Ryu and Josh Beckett will determine if the rotation can be an asset after the top two. They do have a possible surplus of starting pitchers with Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, and Ted Lilly fighting Aaron Harang for the fifth spot in the rotation. Perhaps, some of that surplus could be traded for some offensive depth or more bullpen help. That bullpen is the weakest part of their team as they overspent on Brandon League and are depending on Javy Guerra, Ronald Belisario, and Matt Guerrier to duplicate their 2012 seasons. For a team that spent so much, the bullpen and bench are two big liabilities. They will have to find a way spread some of that payroll into those two areas by dealing their starting pitcher depth.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Question: Can the rotation overcome organization talent loss?
The Diamondbacks set a goal this offseason of becoming a gritty team. That meant overspending on Cody Ross, trading Justin Upton, trading Trevor Bauer, and acquiring dirty uniform guys like Martin Prado, Cliff Pennington, Eric Chavez, and Eric Hinske. Talent-wise, the Diamondbacks’ offense has been downgraded from a year ago, even if prospect Adam Eaton succeeds right away. But, the Diamondbacks still have a solid to above average rotation. They wisely signed Brandon McCarthy to a contract and will enter the spring with a possible rotation of Ian Kennedy, McCarthy, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley, and Tyler Skaggs. With Randall Delgado another rotation possibility and the eventual return of Daniel Hudson, the Diamondbacks are pitching rich. If the dirty uniform offense can score enough and prevent enough runs, they could win many games based on the strength and depth of their pitching staff, even without a quintessential ace. But, that will require Wade Miley to duplicate his rookie success, Kennedy to be better than league average, and someone like Skaggs to step up right away. With those questions, it seems unlikely for the starters to compensate for the lack of offensive talent. But, hey, their uniforms will be dirty.
San Diego Padres
Question: Is Chase Headley a superstar?
There was no better hitter in baseball than Chase Headley over the second half of the season. With a torrid August and September that saw Headley slug over .620 and hit 19 home runs, the Padres won 31 games in the final two months to finish with a surprising 76 for the season. Their home ballpark mitigates the lack of a premier pitcher, but if the Padres are to be that surprise contender in 2013, it all hinges upon Headley really being a star. His age 28 season saw a 100 point increase in his slugging percentage. Is that really him or is he more like the .269/.344/.387 hitter he was for the three previous seasons? The answer to that question determines how good the Padres will be in 2013.
Colorado Rockies
Can Troy Tulowitzki stay healthy?
The Rockies enter 2013 as the favorite to finish last in the NL West. Their lack of starting pitching depth will derail any success their offense could have and also burn out what could be a decent bullpen. Even during a season that saw them lose 98 games, they still finished third in the National League in runs scored. They haven’t improved the pitching at all to see real improvement in 2013. So, their real story centers around their shortstop. Tulowitzki played in just 47 games last season and is really starting to show that he has difficulty staying on the field. In six full seasons, he has played in over 150 games just twice. But, when healthy, he is the best shortstop in baseball and it isn’t even that close. A career .292/.364/.504 hitter, Tulowitzki combines middle of the order power and above average defense to be in the conversation as Baseball’s best player. But, he has to stay on the field. If healthy, he’ll help the Rockies win a few more games, but his presence can’t overcome the pitching problems. Still, it would be good for Baseball to have one of its stars playing for a full season.
Sound off OS: Pick your team’s question and answer it.
Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes about baseball at fullcountpitch.com. Join the conversation on twitter @garyarmida.
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He has experience has a starter and was pitching good last spring prior to the Madson injury and Reds had every intention of him being a starter last year. Think if they can limit his innings over the first couple of months, so he is not fatigued come 2nd half of the year will be the key. Like the last two years the Reds have been rather lucky in that their rotation has not had any significant injuries forcing anyone to miss a significant amount of time and all pitching over 200 innings. I only trust a couple young arms in minors in Leake and Tony Cingrani